Best Betting Platforms for UFC Arbitrage in 2026: Fees, Draws and the No-Contest Problem

The quick answer

Cheapest UFC leg before the opening bell: Novig. No fee for maker or taker on pre-fight straight trades.

Visible depth: Kalshi. Its public order books show spread and size before you trade.

Best if you post rather than take: Polymarket US. Makers collect a rebate.

Closest settlement match to a sportsbook: ProphetX. It cancels orders on a draw, a replaced fighter or a change in scheduled rounds, much as DraftKings' sportsbook voids them.

What breaks UFC arbs: a no contest is refunded at DraftKings' sportsbook, paid 50/50 on Kalshi, and settled at a fair price on Novig and Polymarket US. A late change in scheduled rounds voids DraftKings bets while Novig and Polymarket US winner contracts stand.

On a $200 pre-fight position with a $5.00 edge, Novig keeps the whole edge, where a Kalshi or Polymarket US taker pays about $3.60 of it. In MMA the larger risk is settlement, since the venues here handle a no contest in different ways and a mid-fight stoppage can swing a two-way arb by $41 either way on the example below.

What UFC arbitrage is

A UFC fight is a two-way market with a rare third result. You back both fighters on two venues at prices that together return more than they cost, whoever wins. In the US that usually pairs a sportsbook leg with a prediction-market leg.

Those third results, a draw, a no contest, a fighter swapped out after weigh-ins or a bout that changes length, decide whether the position is risk-free, and each venue writes its own rule for each.

How we checked

This covers venues a US bettor can open and get a UFC position filled on. Fees and settlement rules come from each platform's own schedule, contract terms, help center or house rules. Depth comes from Kalshi's public market data.

Kalshi's fee comes from its fee schedule effective 7 July 2026, checked 7 October. Everything else was checked again on 7 October.

The platforms, ranked for UFC arbitrage

The fee on the pre-fight leg sets this order. On settlement match with a sportsbook, ProphetX would rank first, and on visible depth, Kalshi.

1. Novig: the cheapest pre-fight leg

Novig's contracts page lists UFC Winner, Total and Prop series. It charges neither side on a pre-fight straight trade, takers pay 0.03 x price x (1 - price) per contract once a fight is live, and the maker fee is $0 on every trade type.

Novig runs on Ludlow Exchange, LLC, a CFTC Designated Contract Market. Its UFC Winner and Prop contracts were certified on 23 July 2026 and its Total contract on 24 July. In a two-way winner market a draw pays 50c to each side. A no contest, or a fighter substituted before the opening bell, settles to Void and is paid at fair value.

Its UFC contracts date from late July 2026 and we found no public depth data for them, so test a fill at your size first.

Best for: the prediction-market leg of a pre-fight arb on fight winners and round totals.

2. Kalshi: depth you can check

Kalshi lists UFC fight winners, and its order books are public, so you can see spread and size on fight week before you trade. Its UFC fight series charges takers only, at a standard $1.75 per 100 contracts at 50c, so resting there is free.

Kalshi's fight rules resolve a draw or a no contest to 50/50 for both fighters, and a cancelled fight to a fair price. It also has method-of-victory and round series.

Best for: filling size on fight week.

3. Polymarket US: paid to post

Polymarket US lists UFC fights. Its taker coefficient rose to 0.0695 on 1 October 2026, which is $1.74 per 100 contracts at 50c, and makers are paid $0.31 per 100 at the same price. Polymarket US changed some fees again on 7 October 2026, so check its current schedule before relying on these figures.

Its UFC rules settle a draw or technical draw at $0.50 and a no contest at the last fair market price when it's announced. A substituted fighter settles the original contract at that price, while a change between three and five rounds, a missed weight or a catchweight leaves winner contracts active.

Best for: the resting side of an arb.

4. ProphetX: voids the way DraftKings does

ProphetX takes 2% of net gains per market on straight trades, so a position held to settlement pays only on the winning leg. Its MMA rules cancel moneyline orders on a draw and cancel everything when either fighter is replaced or the scheduled rounds change.

Best for: the second leg against a sportsbook, where matching settlement matters more than price.

The sportsbook leg

A sportsbook such as FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM usually supplies the other leg. DraftKings' house rules void bets when either fighter is replaced, void bets on a no contest, push a two-way moneyline on a draw, and void bets when the number of rounds changes from what was scheduled.

What a UFC arb keeps after fees

A pre-fight arb on one bout: Fighter A at a sportsbook at decimal 2.10 (+110), and Fighter B on a prediction market at 50c. Stake $97.50 at the book and buy 205 contracts for $102.50, a $200.00 outlay. The book leg pays $204.75 and the contracts pay $205.00, so profit before fees is $4.75 or $5.00.

Where UFC arbs break

No contests

Polymarket US's own example of a mid-fight no contest is an accidental foul or headbutt. DraftKings voids the bet and returns the stake, and Kalshi pays 50c a side. Novig settles to Void at fair value, using the 30 minutes of trading before the reference time, and Polymarket US uses the last fair market price when the no contest is announced.

On the position above, a no contest declared in round two plays out like this, with Fighter B trading at 30c just before the foul:

DraftKings plus Kalshi: $97.50 refunded and $102.50 back on the contracts, so you finish level at $200.00.

DraftKings plus Novig: $97.50 refunded and 205 x 30c = $61.50 on the contracts, so $159.00 back, a $41.00 loss. Had Fighter B been trading at 70c, the same arithmetic returns $241.00, a $41.00 gain.

Draws

DraftKings pushes a two-way moneyline on a draw and ProphetX cancels it. Novig, Kalshi and Polymarket US all pay 50c per contract. Bought at 50c, as in the example, the contracts return $102.50 and you're level. A Fighter B leg bought at 65c would lose 15c a contract, and one bought at 35c would gain 15c.

Weigh-in scratches and replacement fighters

A fighter pulled after weigh-ins voids a DraftKings bet and cancels a ProphetX order. Novig settles a substitution before the opening bell to Void at fair value, Kalshi settles a cancelled fight at a fair price, and Polymarket US settles the original contract at the last fair market price and lists a new market. Each of those prices is taken from before the news broke, so the settled value can differ from your entry price if the market moved after you traded.

Round changes

A main event moved between three and five rounds voids DraftKings bets and cancels ProphetX orders. Novig's winner contract states that a round-format change does not affect it, and Polymarket US keeps winner contracts active. A DraftKings-against-Novig fight-winner arb can therefore lose its DraftKings leg to a refund while the other leg rides.

Method and round markets

Round totals use the same halfway mark at DraftKings, Novig and ProphetX: 2:30 into a five-minute round. A fight that ends exactly on that mark counts as over at DraftKings and Novig, while ProphetX cancels orders on that round's line. On a technical decision, DraftKings voids "go the distance" bets and Novig and ProphetX settle them as No.

What to look for

Fee on the prediction-market leg: a taker fee near $3.60 takes most of a $5.00 edge on $200, and a leg with no pre-fight fee keeps all of it. On Novig that window closes at the opening bell.

No-contest rules: pair DraftKings' sportsbook with Kalshi when you want a mid-fight stoppage to leave you level.

Draw payouts: price the 50c draw payout into any leg bought far from 50c.

Round changes: check the scheduled rounds on both venues for main events.

Your state: sports contracts are restricted or litigated in several states, and the list changes with court rulings.

UFC arbitrage FAQ

What platforms give the best UFC arbitrage?

Novig, for the pre-fight leg, with no fee on either side of the trade. If you want order-book depth you can see, Kalshi. If you want settlement that matches DraftKings' sportsbook on draws, replaced fighters and round changes, ProphetX.

Is UFC arbitrage risk-free?

No. Venues don't settle no contests, round changes and some draws the same way, so one leg can be refunded while the other is marked to a price.

Sources

All checked 7 October 2026 except where noted.

Novig fee schedule: support.novig.com/en/articles/16195057-fees-on-novig

Novig Fair Value Settlement: support.novig.com/en/articles/16163706-what-is-fair-value-settlement-fvs

Novig contracts list: support.novig.com/en/articles/16083642-contracts

Novig UFC contract certifications and terms: ludlowexchange.com/filings (UFC Winner and Prop certified 23 July 2026; Total 24 July 2026)

Kalshi UFC rules and series fee types: Kalshi public API (KXUFCFIGHT)

Kalshi fee schedule: kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf (effective 7 July 2026)

Polymarket US fee schedule and sports FAQ, UFC section: docs.polymarket.us/fees (effective 1 October 2026); docs.polymarket.us/faqs/sports-faqs

ProphetX Fighting (Boxing / Mixed Martial Arts) Rules and Understanding Fees: ProphetX help center, updated 15 June and 19 August 2026

DraftKings Sportsbook house rules, general and mixed martial arts sections: Massachusetts Gaming Commission filing, implementation date 26 August 2025