How Much Money You Need to Start Arbitrage Betting in 2026: A $1,000 vs $5,000 Bankroll Model

The quick answer

Smallest amounts: $10. Kalshi's minimum deposit and Novig's minimum withdrawal are both $10.

Minimum to run the strategy: more than that, because the money has to sit in two or more accounts at once. A $1,000 bankroll split across three accounts supports about four $200 arbs open at the same time.

Where the money goes: into open positions. Novig and Polymarket US both hold funds in open positions and uncleared deposits out of your withdrawable balance.

Prediction-market leg: a pre-game straight on Novig carries no fee for maker or taker, so the full 2% edge survives. On Polymarket US, a $500 leg at 50c costs $17.38 in fees at its current taker rate, against a $20 arb.

Break-even with software: at a 2% edge, $1,000 earns about $100 over 25 arbs, close to the cost of a month of scanner software, which typically starts around $100. $5,000 earns $500 over the same 25.

Before you deposit: write a budget, a time limit and the conditions that make you stop.

Arbitrage takes more starting money than a single bet would, because both legs of every position have to be funded before either is placed, and the money stays locked until the games settle.

Why one balance becomes three

An arbitrage position backs every outcome of one event at two venues whose prices disagree. Both legs have to be placed within seconds of each other, so each venue already has to hold its share of the money.

The model below uses one prediction market and two sportsbooks, which gives two choices of venue for the second leg.

How we checked

Deposit, withdrawal and balance rules come from each platform's own help center or documentation, opened on 7 October 2026. The limiting figures come from a Massachusetts Gaming Commission memo opened the same day. The bankroll model is illustrative, with a 2% edge per arb and a $99-a-month scanner assumed for the arithmetic; it makes no claim about how often arbs that size appear.

Where money gets stuck

Open positions: Novig moves the funds for a trade into escrow until the position is matched, closed or settled, and only your wallet balance can be withdrawn. Polymarket US defines its cash balance as money not tied to open positions or open orders, so an unfilled limit order holds cash too.

Uncleared deposits: Novig lists a new deposit as Processing until it clears, typically within a few business days, and it can't be withdrawn until then. Polymarket US can give instant buying power on card and bank deposits, but the funds typically can't be withdrawn for three to four business days. Kalshi often credits part of a bank deposit at once and settles the rest within five business days.

Withdrawals: Novig sends some withdrawals to manual review, typically finished within 24 hours and up to 48 in busy periods.

Stake sizes, minimums and limits

At the small end, the floors are low: $10 to deposit on Kalshi, $10 to withdraw from Novig, and one hundredth of a contract as the minimum unit of trading under Kalshi's rulebook.

Polymarket US caps a single market buy at $1,000,000 in the app, far above any beginner stake. Sportsbook limits are lower and can be cut account by account. A September 2025 Massachusetts Gaming Commission memo found that, on average across the state's operators, 0.64% of player accounts were limited as of 10 December 2024. Of those, 12.7% were cut to less than 1% of the default limit and 57.6% to between 1% and 24%. The commission's analysis found that players who consistently beat the closing line were more likely to have their limits lowered.

An arbitrage bettor who keeps beating the closing line fits that pattern, so a sportsbook account can shrink faster than the bankroll does.

The bankroll model: $1,000 vs $5,000

Both bankrolls split 40% to the prediction market and 30% to each of two sportsbooks. Each arb puts half its stake on each leg and earns 2%. The prediction-market leg is a pre-game straight trade on Novig, where neither maker nor taker pays a fee.

The prediction-market balance sets how many arbs can be open, since every position puts one leg there. Four $100 legs use the full $400, and the matching sportsbook legs use $400 of the $600 at the two books.

On the $1,000 bankroll, the scanner subscription costs about what the month earns. Without the subscription it nets $100, or 10%, though finding 25 arbs by hand is slow.

Put the prediction-market leg on Polymarket US instead and a $500 leg, 1,000 contracts at 50c, costs $17.38 in fees at the current 0.0695 taker coefficient, against a $20 arb. Polymarket US changed some fees again on 7 October 2026, so check its current schedule before relying on these figures.

Balances drift after every slate

Each arb pays out at one venue only. Suppose three of the four open arbs in the $1,000 model settle on the sportsbook side over a weekend, each paying $204 in total. The prediction market gets back $204 from the one position it won; the sportsbooks collect $612 plus the $200 that sat idle, $812 in all. The bankroll grew by $16 to $1,016, but the prediction-market account now holds enough for two $100 legs, half of what it held on Friday.

Fixing that means withdrawing from a sportsbook and depositing to the prediction market. On Novig, a bank transfer avoids the 3% charge on cards and Apple Pay, though the bank deposit takes longer to clear.

A written budget and stop conditions

Before you fund anything, put one page in writing: the amount you can afford to lose (money that isn't borrowed or needed for living expenses), a weekly time limit, and the conditions that end a session or the whole experiment. A sample for the $1,000 model:

• Budget: $1,000 total, never topped up from savings.

• Single-position cap: no leg over $100 until 30 positions are logged without an error.

• Unhedged exposure: if a second leg fails, close or hedge before placing anything new.

• Monthly stop: stop for the month if the bankroll falls to $900.

• Review: a limited sportsbook account, a missed settlement rule or a second failed leg in one week ends the session.

Novig's Trading Limits screen sets daily, weekly or monthly caps on deposits and on trades, and a time out of one day to six months. A limit cannot be changed for 24 hours after it's set, and a time out cannot be lifted early once it's submitted.

Winnings from betting and trading can be taxable, and treatment depends on where you live and on the product. Keep a record of every leg.

What to look for

Funding method: a bank deposit is free but takes days to clear, so fund before the slate starts.

Withdrawable balance: check what's actually available, since open positions, open orders and uncleared deposits all sit outside it.

Fee on the prediction-market leg: a $0 pre-game fee leaves the full edge, while a taker fee near 50c can take most of a 2% arb.

Sportsbook headroom: assume your limits will fall if you keep beating the closing line.

Software cost against bankroll: at an assumed $99 a month, a subscription is 10% of a $1,000 bankroll and 2% of $5,000.

Arbitrage bankroll FAQ

What tools do I need to start arbitrage betting?

Funded accounts at two or more venues, a stake calculator, a log of every leg and a written budget. A scanner helps with finding arbs, and subscriptions typically start around $100 a month.

How much money do I need to start arbitrage betting?

Accounts open with as little as $10, but $1,000 split across three accounts supports about four $200 arbs at once. At a 2% edge, 25 arbs on $1,000 earn about $100, roughly one month of scanner software.

Why can't I withdraw my whole balance?

Money in open positions and uncleared deposits isn't withdrawable. Novig holds a new deposit as Processing for typically a few business days, and Polymarket US typically needs three to four business days before a deposit can be withdrawn.

Do sportsbooks limit arbitrage bettors?

Some limit winning players. In Massachusetts, 0.64% of accounts were limited as of December 2024, and players who consistently beat the closing line were more likely to have their limits lowered.

How long do withdrawals take?

Novig's manual reviews typically finish within 24 hours, Kalshi debit-card withdrawals typically arrive within a few hours, and Polymarket US quotes three to four business days by card or bank transfer.

Sources

All checked 7 October 2026.

Novig withdrawals and escrow: support.novig.com/en/articles/16194062-withdrawing-funds

Novig withdrawable balance and processing deposits: support.novig.com/en/articles/16764991

Novig portfolio balance: support.novig.com/en/articles/16205700

Novig manual withdrawal review: support.novig.com/en/articles/12832742

Novig deposit pricing: support.novig.com/en/articles/15062817

Novig fee schedule: support.novig.com/en/articles/16195057-fees-on-novig

Novig trading limits and time outs: support.novig.com/en/articles/10336201

Polymarket US: docs.polymarket.us, Check Your Balance, Deposit Overview, Withdrawal Overview, Withdrawal Rules, Trading Limits, Fee Schedule (effective 1 October 2026)

Kalshi help center: Card Deposits, Bank Deposits and Debit Card Withdrawals; Kalshi Exchange Rulebook v1.29 (17 August 2026), Rule 13.1

Sportsbook limiting: Massachusetts Gaming Commission, "Player Limiting Data Analysis Results and Possible Next Steps," memo dated 30 September 2025, in the commission's 30 September 2025 meeting materials (massgaming.com)