Live Betting Latency in 2026: Why In-Play Prices Lag and What It Does to Live Arbs

The quick answer

Why prices lag: the sportsbook's data feed, the broadcast you're watching and the book's own acceptance delay all run behind the play, by different amounts.

Sportsbook delay: operators build in a number of seconds between pressing "place bet" and confirmation, and the length varies by operator.

Prediction market order books: a take order fills against what's resting on the book. Polymarket US cancels a market buy that would fill past its price limit, and Kalshi's rulebook allows order delays during live events.

Live fees: takers pay on every prediction market here, from $0.75 per 100 contracts at 50c on most Novig live straights to $1.74 on Polymarket US and $1.75 on Kalshi. Novig charges makers nothing, and Polymarket US pays makers a rebate.

Live arbs: the window is short. In the worked example below, a 2.3% live arb turns into a small loss when the sportsbook leg reprices from +100 to -110 before it's accepted. Before kickoff, the same prices carry no fee on Novig and give you minutes instead of seconds.

What latency means in live betting

Latency is the gap between something happening on the field and a price reflecting it. In live betting there are several gaps stacked on top of each other, and they differ by venue. One book has repriced after a touchdown, another hasn't, and for a moment the two disagree.

The UK Gambling Commission describes the problem in its in-play betting guidance: the time it takes for live action to reach a broadcast varies, and that delay "creates a potential inequality between the parties concerned in an in-play bet."

How we checked

Fee schedules, order rules and funding terms come from each platform's own help center, documentation or regulatory filings, opened on 7 October 2026. Kalshi's fee schedule (effective 7 July 2026), the regulator guidance and the peer-reviewed study were opened the same day, and the worked example uses illustrative prices.

Where the lag comes from

Sportsbooks price live markets off data feeds. The Gambling Commission notes that operators get real-time information from sports data companies and use it to revise prices, suspend markets and settle bets.

A bettor watching a stream sees the play after it happened, by an amount the regulator says varies. Someone at the venue sees it first. Using that head start to bet before the odds move is called courtsiding, and the Commission describes it as a spectator using, or passing on, real-time information to bet "before a betting operator, or other betting exchange user, receives the information and adjusts their odds accordingly."

Per the Commission, sportsbooks also set a delay of a number of seconds between pressing "place bet" and receiving confirmation, and the length depends on each operator's trading strategy. During that window the price can change or the market can suspend.

Croxson and Reade, studying high-frequency soccer betting prices around goals in The Economic Journal (2014), found that "prices update swiftly and fully."

How prediction market order books update

A prediction market is an order book. Resting orders from other users sit at set prices, and a take order matches against them.

Novig: a take order executes immediately at the displayed price, according to Novig's help center. A live make order needs a duration and cancels at that time or at the end of the game, whichever comes first. Pre-game make orders cancel the moment a game goes live, including when Novig marks it live before the listed start.

Polymarket US: a market order fills within a price limit based on the price you were quoted. If prices move past that limit, a buy is canceled rather than filled at a worse price.

Kalshi: its rulebook allows time delays on orders during live events, and Rule 13.1, as amended effective 11 December 2025, requires notice of any such delay on its website or platform.

A limit or price-protected order won't fill at a stale price, but it also won't fill at all if the market has moved, which leaves the first leg of an arb on its own.

Live fees on prediction markets

Novig, Polymarket US and Kalshi all charge a coefficient x price x (1 - price) per contract, which peaks at 50c. On Novig, the only venue here with a $0 pre-game fee, live trades cost more than pre-game trades.

Makers do not pay a fee on Novig on any trade type, and Polymarket US pays makers a rebate of up to $0.31 per 100. Polymarket US changed some fees again on 7 October 2026, so check its current schedule before relying on these figures.

Novig's order book shows prices before the fee, and the ticket shows the fee and total before you confirm.

The worked example: a live arb and a repriced leg

Late in an NFL game, a sportsbook offers Team A at +100 (decimal 2.00). On a prediction market, Team B is available at 47c to take. The example uses Novig's live fee; the table shows how Polymarket US's fee changes it.

Leg 1, prediction market: 200 contracts on Team B at 47c cost $94.00. The live taker fee is 0.03 x 0.47 x 0.53 x 200 = $1.49. Total $95.49.

Leg 2, sportsbook: $100 on Team A at +100 returns $200 if A wins.

Total outlay is $195.49 and either result pays $200, so the position earns $4.51, a 2.3% return.

Suppose the prediction-market leg fills while the sportsbook bet sits in its acceptance delay, and the book comes back offering -110 (decimal 1.909) instead. Covering the same $200 payout now takes $104.76. Total outlay becomes $94.00 + $1.49 + $104.76 = $200.25, a loss of $0.25 whichever team wins. Decline the new price and you're holding $95.49 on Team B with nothing on the other side.

If the sportsbook refuses the bet outright, the prediction-market leg stays open on its own while the game keeps moving.

Why live arbs are fleeting and risky

A live arb lasts only until the slowest venue catches up with the news, and a sportsbook's acceptance delay falls inside that window, where it can return a new price or a suspended market.

Taker fees apply on every prediction market in the table, and BetBurger, an arbitrage scanner, charges more for live data than for prematch.

A suspension, a voided bet or a disputed result on one venue can leave the other leg standing alone, and it's harder to verify both markets' rules in the seconds a live arb allows.

What to look for

Order type: use a price-protected or limit order on the first leg so a stale price can't fill.

Leg order: place the slower leg first where you can, so an acceptance delay doesn't strand the faster one.

Fee by market: read the coefficient for the exact market and trade type, since it can change within one venue.

Make versus take: a resting order pays no fee on Novig and earns a rebate on Polymarket US, though it may not fill before the price moves.

Pre-game alternative: the same two prices before kickoff give you minutes instead of seconds, and on Novig they carry no fee.

Live betting latency FAQ

Why are live betting odds delayed?

Sportsbooks build in a delay of a number of seconds between placing and confirming an in-play bet, and the length varies by operator. Broadcasts also run behind the live action by varying amounts, so what you see on screen is already old.

Is live arbitrage betting possible?

Yes, but the window is short. In the worked example, a 2.3% live arb became a $0.25 loss when the sportsbook leg repriced from +100 to -110 during its acceptance delay.

What do prediction markets charge on live bets?

Takers pay on all three venues here. Per 100 contracts at 50c, that's $0.75 on most Novig live straights, $1.74 on Polymarket US and $1.75 on Kalshi. Novig makers pay nothing and Polymarket US makers get a rebate of up to $0.31.

What is courtsiding?

Betting on real-time information from someone at the event before the operator or other users receive it and adjust the odds. The UK Gambling Commission uses this definition in its in-play guidance.

Do prediction markets have a live bet delay?

Kalshi's rulebook allows order delays during live events with public notice. Rules differ by venue, so check how yours handles live orders before trading in-game.

Sources

All checked 7 October 2026.

Novig fee schedule: support.novig.com/en/articles/16195057-fees-on-novig

Novig make and take orders, order timers: support.novig.com/en/articles/10715726

Polymarket US order types and fee schedule: docs.polymarket.us, Order Types; Fee Schedule (effective 1 October 2026)

Kalshi Rule 13.1 amendment: KalshiEX LLC submission to the CFTC dated 26 November 2025, effective 11 December 2025 (cftc.gov)

Kalshi fee schedule: kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf (effective 7 July 2026)

UK Gambling Commission, "In-play (in-running) betting" guidance, page dated 28 June 2021: gamblingcommission.gov.uk

Croxson, K. and Reade, J. J. (2014), "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," The Economic Journal 124(575), 62-91

BetBurger pricing: betburger.com/prices