The Most Popular NFL Bets in 2026: Spread, Moneyline, Totals and Player Props

Football is a spread sport, and most of the rest of the board takes its cue from the point spread. Because so many games end on a field goal or a touchdown margin, the half point on either side of 3 and 7 is worth more than any other half point you'll buy or sell.

Takeaways

• Key numbers: from 2015 to 2025, 14.8% of NFL games ended with a 3-point margin and 8.7% with a 7-point margin. The next most common margin, 6, came in at 6.9%.

• Half points: a game posted at exactly 3 landed on 3 about one time in 10 over that span. At 4 it happened 1.5% of the time.

• Margin: two sides at -110 keep about 4.55% of what's staked. At -105 both ways it's 2.38%.

• Teasers: six points through 3 and 7 is the classic play, and the price you pay for it decides whether it works.

• Overtime: every full-game bet includes it, and regular-season games can still end tied.

The markets on an NFL board

These markets carry most of the action on a football card:

• Point spread: the favorite gives points, the underdog gets them.

• Moneyline: pick the winner straight up.

• Total: both teams' points combined, over or under.

• Teasers: two or more spread or total legs moved in your favor by a fixed number of points.

• Player props: touchdowns, passing, rushing and receiving yards.

• Same-game parlays: several legs from one game combined into one bet.

• Futures: Super Bowl, conference, division, win totals and awards.

Game markets

1. Point spread

The spread's shape comes from how the game is scored. Field goals are worth 3 and converted touchdowns 7, so final margins cluster on those numbers.

Over 3,028 regular-season and playoff games from 2015 to 2025, this is how often the final margin landed on the numbers bettors watch:

The extra point was moved back before the 2015 season, which is why the window starts there.

What a half point costs

A half point only matters if the game lands on it. Of the 433 games posted at exactly 3 over the same span, 44 finished on 3, which is 10.2%. At 7 it was 11 of 172, or 6.4%. At 4 it was 2 of 133.

That's why moving from -3 to -2.5, or from +3 to +3.5, carries a steeper price than moving from -4 to -3.5. Moving off 3 turns roughly a tenth of outcomes from a push into a win, while moving off 4 changes about one game in 70.

2. Moneyline

Pick the winner. A heavy favorite's moneyline asks you to risk a lot to win a little, so the market does most of its work on close games and underdogs. On a game spread at 3 or less, the moneyline and the spread describe nearly the same bet, and comparing the two prices is a quick read on what the market thinks of a 3-point finish.

3. Totals

Combined points, over or under. NFL totals tend to sit in the 40s (the median posted total from 2021 to 2025 was 44.5), and final scores spread out more than margins do, so no single total carries the weight 3 carries on the spread. Weather and pace move totals, so the forecast is worth checking before you bet one.

What the price is costing you

Near 3, a book will often hold the number and adjust the price, so the same -3 can sit at -110 at one book and -120 at another. Add the two implied chances to see what each version costs.

On Novig, a pre-game straight spread, moneyline or total carries no fee for either side, because two bettors set the price and no house builds a margin into it.

Live NFL straights carry a taker fee of 0.03 x price x (1 - price) per contract, about $0.75 per 100 contracts at even money, and futures and parlays have their own taker fees.

Teasers

A teaser moves every leg's line in your favor by a fixed number of points, and every leg has to win. The standard football teaser is six points. DraftKings publishes a fixed teaser table, with two- to six-team football teasers at six, 6.5 or seven points.

The classic version, usually credited to Stanford Wong, only teases through both key numbers: favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 moved down to 1.5 to 2.5, and underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 moved up to 7.5 to 8.5. From 2015 to 2025, those favorite legs won 73.4% of the time (188 of 256), and the underdog legs won 77.3% (381 of 493).

A two-team teaser at -110 needs each leg to win 72.4% of the time to break even. At -120 it needs 73.9%. DraftKings' filed house rules list its two-team, six-point football teaser at -135, which needs 75.8% per leg. At that price the underdog legs cleared the bar over this sample and the favorite legs didn't.

Player markets

Anytime touchdown props

Bet that a player scores at any point, overtime included. The scorer is the player holding the ball in the end zone, so a quarterback's passing touchdowns don't count toward his own anytime prop. Extra points and two-point conversions don't count either.

At DraftKings, a player who doesn't take part in the game has his bets voided, and if a player who wasn't listed as a selection scores, every bet on that market loses.

Yardage props

Passing, rushing and receiving yards, posted as over/unders. They move on injury news and expected game script: a team protecting a lead runs more and throws less.

Same-game parlays

Several legs from one game combined into one bet. Because the legs depend on the same game, they don't pay the multiplied price of independent legs. The site's guide to correlated bets covers that pricing in full.

Futures and the 2026 season

The 2026 regular season opened on 9 September with Seattle, the defending champion, beating New England, and runs 18 weeks to 10 January 2027, with 17 games per team and nine played outside the US. Onside kicks are now allowed at any point in a game.

Futures cover the Super Bowl, conference and division winners, regular-season win totals and the awards markets. At DraftKings a tie doesn't count as a win, so a team that finishes with a tie can lose a win total over by half a game.

The American Gaming Association estimated $1.76 billion in legal wagers on Super Bowl LX, and LXI is set for 14 February 2027 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

Tickets against handle

Splits pages report tickets (the number of bets) and handle (the money) separately, and on a busy NFL Sunday the two often point at different sides.

The rules that decide NFL bets

Overtime: regular-season overtime is 10 minutes. Both teams get a possession unless a safety or a defensive touchdown ends it first, or the clock runs out. If it's still level after 10 minutes, the game ends in a tie. In the playoffs there are no ties. Full-game spreads, totals and props include overtime.

Ties: DraftKings grades a two-way moneyline on a tied game as a push, and the stake comes back. There were 10 ties from 2015 to 2025.

Postponements: a game moved more than seven days from its scheduled date voids at DraftKings.

What to look for

• Price around 3 and 7: a half point on or off those numbers is worth more than any other on the board, so it's the first thing to shop.

• Add the two prices up: at -110 both ways, 4.55% of stakes is kept. On Novig, a pre-game straight carries no fee, so that 4.55% doesn't apply.

• Tease through both key numbers or not at all: a six-point teaser that crosses neither 3 nor 7 buys mostly empty points.

Frequently asked questions

What is the most popular NFL bet?

The point spread is the market NFL lines are built around, and the moneyline and total sit beside it.

Why are 3 and 7 key numbers in the NFL?

A field goal is worth 3 and a converted touchdown 7. From 2015 to 2025, 14.8% of games ended with a 3-point margin and 8.7% with a 7-point margin.

How much is a half point worth in the NFL?

Games posted at 3 landed on 3 about 10% of the time from 2015 to 2025, so the half point around 3 costs the most. At 4 it was 1.5%.

Does overtime count in NFL bets?

Yes, for full-game markets. A regular-season game can still end tied after 10 minutes of overtime, and DraftKings grades a two-way moneyline on a tie as a push.

What does an NFL bet cost on Novig?

Pre-game straight bets on spreads, moneylines and totals carry no fee. Live bets, futures and parlays carry a taker fee, and makers pay nothing on any trade type. Winnings may be taxable; check with a tax professional.

Sources

Checked 12 October 2026.

NFL game results and posted spreads, 2015 to 2025 seasons: nflverse games file, github.com/nflverse/nfldata (data/games.csv)

Books holding -3 and moving the price (one book at a flat -3 while others charged closer to -120): TheLines, NFL key numbers: https://www.thelines.com/nfl-key-numbers-wild-card-playoffs-2024/

2026 NFL season dates, international games and rule changes: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_NFL_season

2025 regular-season overtime rule change: nbcsportsbayarea.com/nfl/nfl-owners-rule-changes-overtime-rules-kickoff-touchback-tush-push-2025/1839169/

2025 overtime rule details: footballzebras.com/2025/04/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-overtime-rules/

DraftKings house rules, teaser pricing, participation and football sections, as filed with the Massachusetts Gaming Commission: massgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/DraftKings-House-Rules-8.18.25.pdf

AGA Super Bowl LX wagering estimate: publicgaming.com/news-categories-m/sports-betting-daily-fantasy-sports/15447-aga-projects-record-1-76-billion-in-super-bowl-lx-bets

Novig fee schedule: support.novig.com/en/articles/16195057-fees-on-novig

Novig sports and markets: support.novig.com/en/articles/10336189