Novig vs FanDuel: Comparing a Sportsbook, a Prediction Market, and the Company That Runs Both

Key takeaways

• FanDuel runs two products: a state-licensed sportsbook in 26 jurisdictions, and FanDuel Predicts, a CFTC-regulated event-contract business available to trade in all 50 states.

• Two regulators: the sportsbook answers to state gaming boards, FanDuel Predicts to the CFTC through a joint venture with CME Group.

• What the house keeps: Flutter, FanDuel's parent, disclosed a US sportsbook net revenue margin of 8.7% for the quarter ending 30 June 2026.

• What Novig charges: nothing to either side on a pre-game straight trade. Live trades, futures and parlays carry published fees.

• Age: FanDuel Sportsbook is 21+ except in Washington D.C. and Wyoming, where it's 18. FanDuel Predicts is 18+. Novig is 21+.

FanDuel is no longer one business. The sportsbook writes both sides of a line, builds a margin into the price, and operates under state gaming licences. FanDuel Predicts sells event contracts under federal registration and charges differently.

Novig is a prediction market that matches one trader against another and takes no position. It competes with FanDuel Predicts on mechanics and with the sportsbook on cost. Which comparison applies depends on where you live and what you want to trade.

FanDuel's two tracks

FanDuel Sportsbook is available online in 26 states or territories, per Flutter's quarterly filing for the period ending 30 June 2026. That's 24 states plus Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. Mississippi and Washington state carry retail-only FanDuel presence, bringing the total with some form of sportsbook to 28.

FanDuel Predicts is the app of FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a joint venture with CME Group. FanDuel's risk disclosure describes the entity as a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the CFTC and a member of the National Futures Association, trading contracts listed on CME and "certain other CFTC-registered exchanges as the Firm may join as a member". Its own page says the app is available to trade in all 50 states for US citizens 18 and over, with markets varying by location.

Novig runs on a Commodity Futures Trading Commission Designated Contract Market designation. The designated entity is Ludlow Exchange, LLC, trading as Novig, designated on 16 June 2026. It's available nationwide except Arizona, Nevada and Michigan, minimum age 21. Eligibility is judged on where you are when you trade rather than where you live.

How each one makes money

A sportsbook makes money on the gap between the two prices it posts. FanDuel's own betting guides use -110 on each side as the worked example, which implies 52.38% per outcome and 104.76% across the pair. The excess is the margin: 4.76% expressed on stake, or 4.55% of the total wagered across both sides.

In practice FanDuel prices the two sides asymmetrically around roughly that same total. A live pull of 62 NFL two-way markets on 15 September 2026 found exact -110/-110 pricing on 12 of them. The most common pairs were -105/-115 and -115/-105, and total overround across the 62 averaged 4.80%.

Flutter publishes what that comes to. For the quarter ending 30 June 2026, it disclosed a US sportsbook net revenue margin of 8.7%, down 170 basis points year over year, and a structural revenue margin of 14.0%. Flutter credits the 40-basis-point gain in the structural figure to same-game-parlay penetration during the World Cup.

The 4.55% is what one two-way line implies. The 8.7% is what the book kept across everything its customers actually did. The difference is mostly the parlay menu.

Novig charges nothing to either side on a pre-game straight trade. Only takers pay trading fees, and the maker fee is $0 across all trade types. Live trades charge takers on a 0.03 coefficient against price times one minus price, which is $0.75 per 100 contracts at even money. Futures charge takers on 0.06, parlays on 0.10 already built into the quoted price. Since 10 September 2026, golf and tennis futures carry no futures fee.

FanDuel Predicts charges differently again: a flat 2% transaction fee assessed on the potential payout and collected at checkout, with no maker and taker split and no rebates. On a $100 position at even money the potential payout is $200, so the fee is $4.00. Cashing out early is charged the same 2% on the payout, so a round trip pays it twice.

Novig's exchange rulebook obliges registered market makers to quote two-sided markets within a defined spread, and states that an affiliate of the exchange also provides liquidity by placing orders on either side. The rulebook publishes no spread figure.

What you actually pay

A $100 pre-game straight position at even money. On the FanDuel sportsbook that's a $100 stake at -110. On Novig it buys 200 contracts at $0.50.

About nine dollars per hundred on a winning bet at even money. On a losing bet the two are identical, because neither charges a loser beyond the stake. The case for the model is what happens across a season, not on any single bet.

Against FanDuel Predicts the comparison is fee to fee: $4.00 to Novig's nothing on a pre-game straight. The two fee shapes also behave differently across the board. A flat percentage of payout doesn't vary with price, where a coefficient against price times one minus price peaks at even money and falls away at the extremes.

Age limits

FanDuel Sportsbook is 21+ in every jurisdiction except Washington D.C. and Wyoming, where it's 18. Kentucky state law permits 18+ sports betting, but FanDuel enforces 21+ there, so affiliate listings showing FanDuel Kentucky as 18+ are wrong. FanDuel Predicts is 18+.

Novig sets 21.

What FanDuel does better

Market coverage and depth. A licensed sportsbook carries a fuller board than any prediction market currently does: deeper prop menus, more in-play markets, and a mature parlay builder.

Promotions. Sign-up offers, Odds Boosts and Profit Boosts are live products with no equivalent on a fee-based venue, because there's no margin to hand back.

Footprint. FanDuel Predicts reaches all 50 states. Novig excludes three.

Settlement and familiarity. A sportsbook line reads the way most bettors already think, with no contract price to convert.

Who each one suits

You're in one of the 26 FanDuel Sportsbook jurisdictions. Both are available, and the comparison is a fee schedule against a margin priced into the line. On pre-game straights that's roughly nine dollars per hundred won.

You're in a state with no legal sportsbook. FanDuel Predicts and Novig are both available, so it's a fee-to-fee comparison on both sides.

You're in Arizona, Nevada or Michigan. Novig isn't available. FanDuel Predicts is.

You're 18 to 20. Novig is closed to you, and so is FanDuel Sportsbook outside Washington D.C. and Wyoming. FanDuel Predicts is 18+.

You want promotions. Sportsbooks have them and fee-based venues structurally can't.

What to compare before you pick

Work out which FanDuel product your state has. A sportsbook state and a Predicts-only state are different comparisons.

Compare the mechanic, not the marketing. A margin priced into a line and a fee charged on a trade show up in different places and move differently with your stake.

Run your own number. At even money on a straight bet the gap against a -110 line is about nine dollars per hundred won. On a parlay it widens, because that's where the structural margin sits.

Read the live and futures schedules separately. Novig splits its schedule by market type, so the pre-match figure doesn't describe what you pay in play.

Frequently asked questions

Is Novig cheaper than FanDuel?

Against the sportsbook on a pre-game straight bet, yes. Novig charges neither side, where a -110 line on both sides implies about 4.55% held. Novig does charge on live trades, futures and parlays, so the answer narrows outside pre-match straights. Against FanDuel Predicts it's a fee-to-fee comparison that depends on both published schedules.

Does FanDuel have a prediction market?

Yes. FanDuel Predicts, run by FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a joint venture with CME Group, regulated by the CFTC and available to trade in all 50 states.

Is Novig available where FanDuel isn't?

The sportsbook runs in 26 jurisdictions, so Novig reaches many states it doesn't. FanDuel Predicts reaches all 50, which is three more than Novig.

Do FanDuel and Novig price the same event differently?

They price it differently by construction. FanDuel posts a line with a margin built in. Novig shows a price set by other traders. On a liquid market the Novig price will typically sit inside the sportsbook's two-way spread; on a thin one it may not.

Can I use both?

Yes. Comparing prices across independently priced sources is the ordinary reason to hold more than one account.

What happens if I win a lot?

Both are subject to their own account policies. Reported limiting of winning customers at traditional sportsbooks circulates widely and is not independently verified.

Sources

FanDuel Sportsbook state count: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001635327/000163532726000056/flut-20260630.htm (Flutter Q2 2026 10-Q); fanduel.com/legal-sports-betting-us-map

FanDuel minimum ages: site-wide disclaimer on fanduel.com state pages

FanDuel reference pricing: fanduel.com/sports-betting-guide/what-is-a-spread-bet; fanduel.com/sports-betting-guide/how-to-bet-over-under

FanDuel promotions: fanduel.com/rewards-101/profit-boost

Flutter Q2 2026 US sportsbook margins: globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/05/3339154/0/en/flutter-entertainment-announces-q2-2026-financial-results.html

FanDuel Predicts entity, regulator and availability: fanduel.com/predicts; fanduel.com/predicts-riskdisclosures; fanduel.com/predicts/where-can-i-trade-on-prediction-markets; fanduel.com/predicts/frequently-asked-questions

FanDuel Predicts 2% transaction fee: fanduel.com/predicts/how-do-payouts-work

FCM customer agreement, on exchange-fee pass-through: cmegroup.com/fcm/files/fcm-customer-agreement.pdf

Novig CFTC designation: cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/IndustryFilings/TradingOrganizations/59390

Novig fee schedule, eligibility and age: support.novig.com/en/articles/16195057-fees-on-novig; support.novig.com/en/articles/16194031-eligibility-legality