Oct 8, 2026

Pushes, Voids and Postponements: How Sportsbooks and Prediction Markets Settle Them in 2026

How pushes, voids and postponements settle

The quick answer

No pushes: Novig, Kalshi and Polymarket US. Novig sets every spread and total at a half point, and Kalshi and Polymarket US contracts resolve No when a margin lands exactly on a whole-number line.
Most detailed void method: Novig. A voided contract settles at a fair value worked out by a published 30-minute formula, and the price is posted afterward.
Stake back on a push: DraftKings and ProphetX. A whole-number line that lands exactly returns your money.
Tightest postponement window: DraftKings and ProphetX void an MLB bet if the game doesn't start on its scheduled calendar day.
Retirements: on a first-set tennis retirement, Kalshi and Polymarket US pay the opponent, DraftKings pays the opponent and refunds the other side, and Novig and ProphetX void the match.

The same game can settle differently depending on which of these five platforms you used. A sportsbook treats a void as a refund. The prediction markets mostly treat it as a sale at a fair price, which can pay you more or less than you put in. If you're hedging or arbing across platforms, that difference decides whether your two positions offset.

What a push, a void and a fair-value settlement are

A push is a tie against the line: Chiefs -3, Chiefs win by 3. A void cancels the bet because the event, the player or the market fell through. At a sportsbook both usually mean your stake comes back.

Prediction markets trade contracts that pay $1 or $0, so a refund isn't the default. Kalshi, Polymarket US and Novig all settle most voids at a fair price instead, meaning the contract pays what it was worth just before the disruption.

How we checked

We read each operator's own rules on 6 October 2026 and rechecked them on 7 October: DraftKings' published house rules (the Maryland edition served to us), the contract terms Kalshi, Polymarket US and Novig filed with the CFTC, each platform's help center, and ProphetX's sport rulebook. Where a rule varies by sport, the row names the sport. Rules change, and sportsbook house rules vary by state.

The settlement rules, side by side

Rule	Novig	DraftKings Sportsbook	Kalshi	Polymarket US	ProphetX
Whole-number spread or total lands exactly	Can't happen. Lines are always half-integers	Push, stake returned	Lines quoted at half points; a "wins by more than X" contract resolves No on exactly X	Lines may be half-unit; a "more than 7" contract pays $0 on exactly 7	Void, collateral returned
MLB game postponed before first pitch	Stands if it starts within 48 hours of the original start (or on a date Novig formally updates); otherwise void and fair value	Void if it doesn't start on the scheduled date	Stays open if played within two days; otherwise fair price	Settlement date moves if rescheduled before the contract expires; otherwise last fair market price at Polymarket's discretion	Void if it doesn't start on the scheduled calendar day
MLB game called early	Settles on the official winner if MLB records one	Moneyline stands once official (15 outs rule); run line and totals need 9 innings (8.5 if home leads)	Settles on the official winner if MLB declares the game official	Declared result stands if a winner is declared	Moneyline official after 5 innings (4.5 if home leads); spreads and totals need 9 (8.5)
Overtime and extra innings	Included in full-game markets	Included in NBA and MLB full-game markets; single-inning markets excluded	Included unless the market says otherwise	Included unless the contract says otherwise	Included in full-game football and MLB markets
Player prop, player doesn't play	Void, settled at fair value	Void, stake returned	Last fair price, set by Kalshi	Last fair market price	Void (NFL: one snap needed)
Tennis retirement before the first set ends	Void, settled at fair value	Opponent's backers paid; bets on the retiring player voided	Retiring player resolves No	Result at retirement stands if a winner is declared	Void
Parlay leg voided	Per Novig's Combination Contracts filing, parlay pays the product of leg values, with the voided leg at its fair value	Leg removed, odds recalculated on remaining legs	Combo pays the product of leg values	Combo pays the product of leg values	Leg removed and price recomputed; void leg in a same-event parlay voids the whole parlay

Where this breaks a hedge

Most of the time these rules never come up. When they do, a hedged position can stop being hedged, because one side is refunded while the other is marked to a price.

Say you bet the Over on Player A's points at a sportsbook and hedge by buying 200 No contracts on the same line on Novig at $0.48, which costs $96. An hour before tip, Player A is ruled out.

The sportsbook voids your Over and returns the stake. Novig's published method sets the fair value in its own worked example at $0.45 for Yes, so No pays $0.55. Your 200 No contracts return $110 against the $96 you paid, a $14 gain. Had you held the Yes side at $0.52 instead, 200 contracts would have cost $104 and returned $90, a $14 loss. Either way the outcome came from the settlement rule, and the hedge no longer offset anything.

In tennis, if you back Player A at DraftKings and Player B on Novig, and A retires at 3-4 in the first set, DraftKings pays B's backers and voids your bet on A. Novig voids the match and settles your B contracts at fair value. You get your A stake back and a marked price on B, with no match left to bet on.

On spreads, a sportsbook's -3 and a prediction market's 3.5 are not the same bet, and a game that lands on 3 pushes one leg and settles the other. Depending on which side you held, that's a middle in your favor or a loss on the leg that settled.

How the prediction markets' void methods compare

All three prediction markets publish their contract terms with the CFTC. Ludlow Exchange, LLC, the exchange Novig runs on, was designated a contract market on 16 June 2026, and its filings at ludlowexchange.com/filings carry the push, void and postponement rules for each sport.

Novig writes down more of the void math than the others. Its fair value settlement article sets a reference time at the earliest of the stoppage, a trading halt or the first public report, then blends two inputs over the 30 minutes before it: prices from outside markets with their margin removed, and the midpoint of Novig's own order book. It lists what gets excluded and a fallback ladder, and if no clean price exists, you get back the funds you had at risk. Novig posts the final price and a summary of the calculation.

Kalshi's terms send most of the same situations to "the last fair price as determined by the Exchange in its sole discretion." Polymarket US uses "last fair market prices," at the exchange's discretion for cancellations. Neither document says in advance how that number is built.

What to look for

Line format: a half-point line can't push, and a whole-number line on a sportsbook can.
Void method: check whether a void returns your stake or marks your position to a price, who sets that price, and whether the formula is published before the event.
Postponement window: MLB windows run from the scheduled calendar day to 48 hours, depending on the platform.
Tennis retirement: read the first-set rule on both platforms before you place the second leg.
Parlay math: a voided leg is dropped at a sportsbook and priced into the product at a prediction market.

Settlement FAQ

Is Novig better than a traditional sportsbook for settlement?

Novig's spreads and totals can't push, and its void rule is written out step by step with the price published afterward, so you know the method before the event. A fair-value void can return less than you paid, while a sportsbook refund gives the stake back and leaves a hedge on another platform unmatched.

What happens to a bet if the game is postponed?

It depends on the platform and sport. For MLB, DraftKings and ProphetX void if the game doesn't start on its scheduled day, Kalshi waits up to two days and Novig up to 48 hours from the original start.

Do prediction markets refund voided bets?

Usually not. Kalshi, Polymarket US and Novig settle most voids at a fair price, which can pay more or less than you paid, and Novig refunds only when no reliable price exists.

What happens to a parlay when one leg is voided?

At DraftKings the leg drops out and the odds are recalculated. On Kalshi, Polymarket US and Novig the parlay pays the product of each leg's value, so a voided leg priced at $0.50 halves a parlay whose other legs won.

Why does settlement matter for arbitrage?

An arb is only risk-free if both legs settle on the same terms. A push on one platform and a Yes or No on another, or a refund against a fair-value mark, leaves you with an open position.

Sources

All checked 6 October 2026 and rechecked 7 October 2026.

Novig fair value settlement: support.novig.com/en/articles/16163706-what-is-fair-value-settlement-fvs

Novig fair value calculation: support.novig.com/en/articles/16200428-how-novig-calculates-the-fair-value-price

Novig settlement article: support.novig.com/en/articles/10336135

Ludlow Exchange contract terms (NFL Spread, NFL Total, MLB Winner, MLB Total, NBA Prop, ATP Winner) and Settlement of Combination Contracts filing of 6 August 2026: ludlowexchange.com/filings

Ludlow Exchange DCM designation: cftc.gov, Designated Contract Markets, organization 59390

DraftKings Sportsbook General Rules, Market Rules, and Baseball, Basketball and Tennis Sport Rules (Maryland edition)

Kalshi contract terms FOOTBALLSPREAD, BASEBALLGAMEWIN, FOOTBALLENTITYSTAT; KXMLBGAME, KXNFLGAME, KXNFLRECYDS and KXATPMATCH market rules; Kalshi Combos help article

Polymarket US (QCX LLC) product certifications AEC, ASC, TSC, ASTATC and CROSS

ProphetX Football, Baseball, Tennis and Parlay Rules, ProphetX help center