Two-Way vs Three-Way Moneylines in 2026: 1X2, Draw No Bet and 60-Minute Lines

The quick answer

• Three-way moneyline: three selections, home, draw (or tie) and away. In soccer it's settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; in hockey it's the 60-minute line.

• Two-way moneyline: two selections. A hockey two-way includes overtime and the shootout. A soccer two-way has to say what happens on a draw.

• Draw no bet: your stake comes back on a draw. Its fair price is the home side's share of the non-draw probability.

• Comparing them: convert both prices into the same outcome set before you compare. A 60-minute price and a moneyline price on the same team are not the same bet.

• Prediction markets: Kalshi lists an EPL match as three separate contracts, one of them Tie. Novig's filed soccer terms allow a two-way contract that pays each side 50 cents on a draw, or a three-way market with the draw as its own selection.

What two-way and three-way moneylines are

DraftKings' Massachusetts house rules describe 3-way moneyline markets as bets on which selection wins "or if there will be a tie or draw," and list the other names they go by: "Match Bets, Win-Draw-Win, 1X2, Match Result (Regulation Time), or 60 Minute Line in Hockey." The same rules say 2-way moneylines include results from any overtime or shootout, and 3-way moneylines don't.

A league soccer match can end level, and DraftKings settles soccer bets at the end of regulation time, "including injury and stoppage time," with extra time excluded except in markets built for it.

How we checked

Sportsbook definitions come from the house rules DraftKings and BetMGM file with the Massachusetts Gaming Commission. Prediction-market formats come from Kalshi's contract terms and live market rules (read through Kalshi's public API), and from the Ludlow Exchange contract filings behind Novig. Every worked price below is illustrative. Every source was reopened on 7 October 2026.

Soccer: 1X2, draw no bet and double chance

Say a match is priced home 2.20, draw 3.40, away 3.30 in decimal odds.

The implied probabilities sum to 105.17%, a 4.92% hold. Dividing each by 1.0517 gives the no-vig column, which sums to 100.00%.

Draw no bet removes the draw. BetMGM's soccer rule: "If the game finishes in a draw, then stakes will be refunded." The fair home price is the home share of the non-draw outcomes: 43.22 / (43.22 + 28.81) = 60.00%, or 1.667 in decimal (-150).

You can also build draw no bet yourself from the 1X2 prices. Put enough on the draw to return your total stake if it lands. On $100, that's $100 / 3.40 = $29.41 on the draw and $70.59 on home. A draw returns $29.41 x 3.40 = $100.00, a home win returns $70.59 x 2.20 = $155.29 (an effective price of 1.553), and an away win loses the $100. The shortcut is home x (draw - 1) / draw: 2.20 x 2.40 / 3.40 = 1.553.

The homemade version at 1.553 sits well short of the fair 1.667 because it's paying the margin on two legs.

Double chance covers two of the three outcomes, for example home or draw. Built from the same prices, $60.71 on home and $39.29 on the draw return $133.57 either way, a price of 1.336. The fair price is 1 / (0.4322 + 0.2797) = 1.405.

Hockey: the 60-minute line against the moneyline

DraftKings' hockey rules count overtime in every market unless the header says "Excl OT," "Regulation Time" or "60 minutes," and outside NCAA games they settle a shootout by adding one goal to the winner's end-of-regulation score. So a moneyline bet on a team wins on a regulation win, an overtime win or a shootout win. The 60-minute bet on the same team wins only on the first.

A regulation three-way at home 2.05, tie 4.10, away 3.25 implies 48.78% + 24.39% + 30.77% = 103.94%. No-vig: 46.93%, 23.47% and 29.60%.

To turn that into a two-way equivalent, give each team its regulation-win probability plus its share of the tie. With a coin flip assumed for overtime and the shootout, home is 46.93% + 23.47% / 2 = 58.66%, a fair two-way price of 1.705 (-142). Away is 41.34%, or 2.419 (+142). Swap in your own split if you have one.

A two-way moneyline of -150 on the home side implies 60.00%, so against this three-way market the moneyline home price is the more expensive way to back the same team.

How prediction markets list soccer

Kalshi lists each EPL match as three contracts. For Arsenal vs Leeds United on 10 October 2026, the event held Arsenal, Leeds United and Tie, each resolving on the result "after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties)." Assume the three contracts ask 72, 12 and 19 cents, which sum to $1.03, and bid 71, 11 and 18, which sum to $1.00. Buying every outcome at the ask then costs three cents more than the $1 it pays, the same job the overround does on a sportsbook.

Ludlow Exchange's MLS Winner and EPL Winner contracts, the filed terms behind Novig, let the exchange list a match as two-way or three-way. In a two-way market, a draw splits the settlement value "and each side receives fifty cents." In a three-way market, "a draw is a valid, determined settlement outcome" and doesn't split or void. A level score from an abandoned or suspended match isn't treated as a draw in a three-way market; the contract voids and settles at fair value.

A two-way split-draw contract is worth its team's win probability plus half the draw probability. Using the mid prices from those assumed quotes for Arsenal (71.5 cents), Tie (18.5) and Leeds (11.5), which sum to $1.015, the normalized probabilities are 70.44%, 18.23% and 11.33%. A split-draw Arsenal contract is worth 70.44 + 18.23 / 2 = 79.56 cents. The draw no bet equivalent is 70.44 / (70.44 + 11.33) = 86.14%, so an Arsenal win prices at 70.44, 79.56 or 86.14 depending on how the venue handles the draw.

Fees on these contracts differ by venue. Novig charges no fee to either side on pre-game straight trades and $0 maker fee on every trade type. Kalshi's API lists its EPL game series with maker fees as well as taker fees.

Why a missing outcome breaks an arb

An arb has to pay on every result, and mixing a three-way leg with a two-way leg leaves one result unpaid.

In hockey, say Team A's 60-minute price is 2.05 at one book and Team B's moneyline is 2.25 at another. The implied probabilities sum to 0.4878 + 0.4444 = 0.9322, which looks like a 7.27% return. On $200, that's $104.65 on A and $95.35 on B, each returning $214.53.

The 60-minute bet loses on a regulation tie, and the B moneyline loses when A wins after regulation. To cover it, the A leg has to be a moneyline too, or the tie has to be bought on its own.

What to look for

• Outcome set: count the selections on each leg before you compare prices. Two and three aren't interchangeable.

• Period: check whether overtime, extra time and the shootout count on each leg.

• Draw handling: a soccer two-way can push, refund or split on a draw, and each pays differently.

• Conversion: turn a 1X2 price into draw no bet or a hockey 60-minute price into a two-way equivalent before calling either side value.

• Fees: add each venue's fee to the leg it applies to, and check whether makers pay one too.

Two-way and three-way moneyline FAQ

What is the difference between a two-way and a three-way moneyline?

A three-way moneyline adds a draw or tie as its own selection and is settled at the end of regulation. A two-way has two selections; in hockey it includes overtime and the shootout.

How do you convert 1X2 odds to draw no bet?

Remove the margin, then divide the team's probability by the total of both teams' probabilities. At home 2.20, draw 3.40, away 3.30, that's 43.22 / 72.03 = 60.00%, a fair draw no bet price of 1.667.

How do prediction markets handle a soccer draw?

Kalshi lists the tie as its own contract. Novig's filed MLS and EPL terms allow a two-way market where each side gets 50 cents on a draw, or a three-way market where the draw is a selection.

Can you arbitrage a three-way line against a two-way line?

Only if every result is covered. A 60-minute leg against a moneyline leg loses both bets when the game is tied after regulation and the 60-minute side wins in overtime.

Sources

All opened 7 October 2026.

DraftKings Massachusetts Sportsbook House Rules (implementation date 26 August 2025), massgaming.com, DraftKings licensee page: 2-way and 3-way moneyline definitions, soccer settlement, hockey settlement

BetMGM Massachusetts House Rules (file dated 22 April 2026), massgaming.com, BetMGM licensee page: soccer draw no bet

Kalshi SOCCERGAMEWIN and HOCKEYWINNINGINPERIOD contract terms; KXEPLGAME and KXNHLGAME series records and KXEPLGAME-26OCT10ARSLEE market rules, Kalshi public API

Ludlow Exchange MLS Winner and EPL Winner contract filings: ludlowexchange.com/filings

Novig contracts index: support.novig.com/en/articles/16083642-contracts

Novig fee schedule: support.novig.com/en/articles/16195057-fees-on-novig